Dell’Oro Group predicted open RAN revenue to slow for the first time following three years of growth, citing operator hesitancy as a factor.

It revised cumulative revenue expectations for the five years to 2027 down by between 5 per cent and 10 per cent.

VP Stefan Pongratz noted open RAN adoption has been mixed across greenfield and brownfield operators as deployments have matured.

He stated the revenue dip is “more of a near-term calibration than a change in the long-term growth trajectory”, noting reshaping the RAN sector was never expected to be smooth.

“Even so, our long-term position has not changed.”

“We continue to believe that open RAN is here to stay and the growing support by the incumbent suppliers bolsters this thesis.”

Pongratz told Mobile World Live Samsung Networks, NEC, Fujitsu, Rakuten Symphony and Mavenir were the top open RAN suppliers by revenue from Q2 2022 to end-March.

He expects incumbent vendors including Ericsson and Nokia to play a pivotal role across the open and virtual RAN sectors going forward.

Dell’Oro still expects open RAN revenue to account for between 15 per cent and 20 per cent of the overall market by 2027 and previously forecast the sum to be between 6 per cent and 10 per cent this year.

It noted European operators are leading in terms of open RAN announcements, but have been slow to deploy.