IDC lifts full-year smartphone forecast by 10%

Research firm IDC has raised its forecast for smartphone shipments this year by 10 percent due to greater-than-expected demand and a slew of new devices. The firm now expects vendors to ship 269.6 million smartphones – what it refers to as ‘converged mobile devices’- in 2010 compared to 173.5 million last year, representing growth of 55.4 percent. For the first half of 2010, vendors shipped a total of 119.4 million units or 55.5 percent more than the 76.8 million units shipped during 1H09. “The smartphone is the catalyst behind the rebound in the worldwide mobile phone market this year,” said IDC analyst Kevin Restivo. “Additional product introductions and an expected flurry of smartphone buying activity in the second half of the year will push the market well above previous expectations.” IDC pointed to recent high-profile smartphone launches such as the BlackBerry Torch, EVO 4G, and Apple’s iPhone 4.

The growth in smartphones will also translate into a better overall market performance this year. IDC now expects the 2010 overall mobile phone market to grow 14.1 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than previously forecast. However, while the smartphone market is forecast to grow by around a quarter next year, the firm predicts that growth will decline progressively over the course of its five-year forecast period, rising by just 13.6 percent in 2014. It adds that the market will “comfortably support up to five OS players over the next five years,” remaining “fragmented but healthy for the foreseeable future.” It forecasts that Symbian will maintain its number one standing throughout the forecast period with a 32.9 percent share in 2014 – but will lose share to the likes of Android, which is expected to grow its share fastest over the forecast period, rising from 16.3 percent to 24.6 percent. The other major smartphone platform expected to register growth is Microsoft’s Windows Mobile, which IDC says will “regain some of the share it has lost over the past two years.”

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, September 2010