Counterpoint Research predicted the combined company created from a Sprint and T-Mobile US merger could overtake Verizon to become the number two IoT player in the US by 2025.

The research company expects AT&T to remain the market leader, though its share is predicted to slip from 53 per cent in 2018 to 48 per cent in 2025. Verizon’s market share is forecast to increase from 22 per cent to 26 per cent in the same timeframe, but the growth might not be enough to maintain its second place slot if T-Mobile and Sprint’s tie up is approved.

Sprint’s 14 per cent cellular IoT market share is expected to remain flat over the period, while T-Mobile’s was tipped to grow from 11 per cent to 12 per cent. Together, Counterpoint Research said, the pair’s market share would be enough to edge past Verizon.

The company noted T-Mobile’s cellular IoT connections are currently dominated by energy, industrial and enterprise applications, matching up with a majority of Sprint’s IoT connections. But, going forward, Counterpoint Research tipped T-Mobile to experience a “significant increase” in connections from smart city applications – a segment targeted by rival AT&T.

All told, the number of cellular IoT connections in the US is expected to surpass the 500 million mark by 2025, with 5G IoT connections accounting for 16 percent of the figure.