Juniper Research forecast SMS traffic will slump by 20 per cent between 2024 and 2029 with mobile operators potentially facing a decline in revenue if they don’t alleviate fraud concerns.

The research company predicted the number of messages sent will drop from 5.2 trillion to 4.1 trillion over the five-year timeframe. Despite the downward spiral, Juniper Research expects SMS to remain relevant alongside alternative platforms RCS and OTT messaging for certain use cases.

In its latest report into the market, the analyst house stated it is “crucial that mobile operators reduce fraud on the SMS platform to maintain its security for the use cases that remain on SMS while also decreasing the pricing, which has risen significantly in the past couple of years”.

To address those concerns, mobile operators should work with SMS firewall vendors and regulators to reduce fraudulent behaviour by using data to target key areas.

It forecast global SMS revenue will shrink 28 per cent from $66 billion in 2024 to $47 billion in 2029.

The drop is due to the rise of commercially available alternatives in the face of rising SMS termination fees and high levels of fraud.

Juniper Research stated RCS and communications APIs are emerging as alternatives for enterprises currently using SMS for authentication and identity.

OTT messaging will dominate traffic this year due to feature-rich solutions and cost-effective pricing.

It noted the top vendors for messaging including RCS, APIs and conversational AI this year are Infobip, Vonage and Sinch.