Dell’Oro Group tipped RAN revenue to decline in 2023 and market conditions to remain challenging in 2024 due in part to a drop in demand from India.

Global RAN revenue is projected to decrease at a CAGR of 1 per cent over the next five years, which would mark a slowdown in the rate of decline.

The research company noted RAN revenue grew by more than 40 per cent between 2017 and 2021, before levelling and off in 2022.

VP Stefan Pongratz stated increases in new growth areas including fixed wireless access and private networks were not enough to offset a slowdown in mobile broadband-based investments.

“Also weighing on the MBB market is the fact that the upper mid-band capacity boost is rather significant relative to current data traffic growth rates in some markets, which could impact the timing for capacity upgrades,” Pongratz explained.

Other RAN segments expected to grow over the next five years include 5G New Radio, mmWave, Massive MIMO, open RAN, small cells and virtualised RAN.

Dell’Oro Group does not expect 5G-Advanced to fuel another major capex growth cycle, despite being expected to play a role in the broader evolution of the next-generation technology.