The number of downloads from mobile application stores will more than double this year, says research firm Gartner. Downloads globally will reach 17.7 billion in 2011, a 117 percent rise from the 8.2 billion in 2010.  Looking further ahead, the firm predicts that by the end of 2014 over 185 billion apps will have been downloaded since the launch of the first major app store in July 2008.

Revenues from app stores will also rise steeply this year, says Gartner. In fact the growth rate for revenue will outpace that for the number of apps, nearly tripling. App stores will generate US$15.1 billion this year, a 190 percent increase from the US$5.2 billion in revenues for 2010. The cumulative revenue figure for 2010-2014 will reach US$58 billion.

The revenue figure includes both the purchase of apps and app-inspired income from advertising. At present advertising generates a relatively small amount of total income (16 percent) but Gartner reckons this figure will grow over the next few years. By the end of 2014, advertising will account for “a little under a third” of app store revenues, says the firm.

The proportion of free apps has been in decline for some time although Gartner says they will still account for 81 percent of all app store downloads this year. However, the percentage of free apps will start increasing again from 2012 through 2014. Finally, Gartner estimates that Apple’s App Store accounted for close to nine out of ten app downloads in 2010 and will remain the market leader during the firm’s forecast period through 2014, although the extent of its dominance will lessen.