Mobile payment transactions will pass US$171.5 billion globally in 2012, a 62 percent growth from last year according to a new study by Gartner. The research firm says the number of mobile payment users will reach 212 million this year, an increase from the 160.5 million in 2011.

By 2016 the value of m-pay transactions will be worth US$617 million says the study with 448 million users. However for the next two years the mobile payments market will have fragmented services and solutions meaning that technology providers will have to customise their solutions to markets using different access technologies, business models and partners and varying regulatory regimes.

There will be a few companies with global scale in this market but also still room for smaller players  serving specialist segments or local markets, it says.

While SMS is the dominant access technology in developing markets, mobile web and Wap is preferred in North America and West Europe. Gartner says web/Wap will continue its dominance over the next five years in both markets. NFC’s market share will remain relatively low through 2015 although growth will start to pick up from 2016 onwards, it says.

The study argues it takes time for the collaboration that underpins NFC as well as the change in user behaviour to be adopted. The firm does not expect mass market NFC before 2015. Until that date, it will be ticketing services rather than retail payments driving NFC.