Smartphone shipments have exceeded PC shipments since 2010, but now tablet devices are set to do the same. According to the latest IDC research, total PC shipments (the desktop and portable varieties combined) are still expected to be greater than tablet shipments for the full year, but tablets will start overtaking the PC segment in Q4 2013.

And while IDC expects the desktop PC market to contract by 8.4 per cent through 2013-2017, tablet shipments are forecast to boom by nearly 80 per cent over the same period.

Smartphones are expected to grow by around 70 per cent in the four years till 2017, while portable PCs are slated for a much gentler growth trajectory of 8.7 per cent.

The findings are part of IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Smart Connected Device Tracker, which comprises PCs, tablets and smartphones.

The research firm forecasts that the entire smart connected device market will grow, year-on-year, 27.8 per cent in 2013 – slightly lower than the 30.3 per cent growth in 2012. The growth will be driven by tablet and smartphone shipments, while the PC outlook has been lowered by 10 per cent in 2013.

Smartphones will continue to ship in high volumes, surpassing 1.4 billion units in 2015 and accounting for 69 per cent of all smart connected device shipments worldwide.

In terms of shipment value, the worldwide smart connected device market will again exhibit double-digit year-over-year growth of 10.6 per cent in 2013, but, says IDC, this growth will gradually slow to just 3.1 per cent in 2017.

The tapering revenue forecast reflects the increasing impact of low-cost smartphones and the white box tablet market.

Worldwide smart connected device value is expected to be $622.4 billion in 2013, of which $423.1 billion will come from the sub-$350 smartphone and sub-$350 tablet segments collectively.

 

“At a time when the smartphone and tablet markets are showing early signs of saturation, the emergence of lower-priced devices will be a game-changer,” said Megha Saini, an IDC research analyst. “Introducing new handsets and tablet devices at cheaper price points along with special initiatives like trade-in programs from Apple and BestBuy will accelerate the upgrade cycle and expand the total addressable market overnight.”

Looking forward, IDC says the worldwide smart connected device space will continue to surge, with overall shipments surpassing 2 billion units by the end of 2015 with a market value of $735.1 billion.

In terms of device mix, total PC shipments accounted for 28.7 per cent of the smart connected device market in 2012 while tablets accounted for 11.8 per cent and smartphones 59.5 per cent.

By 2017, total PCs are expected to drop to 13 per cent, while tablets and smartphones will contribute 16.5 per cent and 70.5 per cent respectively to the overall market.

The shift in demand from the more expensive PC category to more reasonably priced smartphones and tablets will drive the average selling price (ASP) for the collective market.