Canadian research firm IE Market Research (IEMR) predicts the gross value of global mobile payment transactions will reach US$945 billion in 2015, a 30-fold increase from the figure of US$31.5 billion in 2010.  The report’s forecast is based on a survey of 50,000 users in 50 markets worldwide which the firm says is the most extensive, country-specific research of its kind.

In addition to the value of total transactions, the report also predicts the rise and fall of individual technologies. Unsurprisingly, IEMR says SMS-based transactions are in decline relative to NFC technology in developed markets, particularly Western Europe and North America. The key determinant in NFC’s favour is its potential  access to millions of point-of-sale terminals in retailers, says the report.  The firm says NFC transactions globally totalled 1.5 billion last year and it forecasts a growth to 55.3 billion in 2015. Another finding of the report is that mobile payments hold promise in emerging markets because of the lack of fixed networks which makes mobile phone-based purchases more convenient.

Generally, ease-of-use is promoting the use of m-commerce and mobile contactless transactions, says the report. “Our usage surveys reflect a trend of mobile payments growing commonplace in the Western World, corroborated by the fact North American and Western European markets are geared up for the beginning stages of a full-fledged adoption of the digital wallet,” says Nizar Assanie (pictured), vice president of research at IEMR.