Mobile operators are uncertain about the potential revenues from NFC-enabled services, according to a blog written by Stela Bokun (pictured), senior analyst with Pyramid Research. “In this murky situation, and given the stringent budget constraints under which service providers are operating these days, the NFC market has come to a standstill,” writes Bokun.

Operators cannot launch NFC-based services without attractive handsets “but they can’t order the devices from OEMs because their return on investment from launching the services is uncertain,” she writes.  This catch-22 is causing “a lot of internal turmoil” among operators, according to Bokun.

Her own projection for total NFC-enabled smartphone shipments in 2011 is “a still very cautious” 17.5 million. Actually, that figure is an increase on her previous 11.5 million shipments made in April this year. Her increased optimism is due to an overall upward adjustment in total smartphones sales and a few positive signs, such as Sprint Nextel’s pricing of the NFC-enabled Nexus S 4G and the arrival of a version of Samsung’s Galaxy S II, which has a NFC chip installed, later this month in the US.

Bokun’s analysis of operator uncertainly strikes a familiar note from NXP's financial results at the end of July when the leading NFC chip vendor downgraded its previous projections for handset shipments for 2011. Previously the company had predicted a range of 40 million to 100 million NFC-enabled handset shipments for this year. The company’s revision is towards the lower end of that range or perhaps slightly below the 40 million figure. The latter is still in excess of Bokun’s projection. She says NXP remains “too optimistic”.