Less than half of the world’s population has subscribed to a mobile service, according to a major new study by Wireless Intelligence that investigated the gulf between individual mobile users (people) and registered mobile connections (SIM cards).

The firm – the research arm of the GSMA – said that total mobile connections will reach 6.8 billion (including M2M) by year end, suggesting that global mobile penetration will soon pass 100 percent. However, it says that once M2M connections and inactive SIMs are excluded from the total – and multiple SIM ownership is taken into account – the total number of unique subscribers stands at just 3.2 billion, representing 45 percent of the world’s estimated 7 billion population in Q4 2012.

“This research, for the first time, highlights the difference between mobile connections and individual mobile subscribers, and points to a significant growth opportunity for the mobile industry as we continue to connect the world’s population,” said GSMA director general Anne Bouverot.

The study shows that consumers use an average of 1.85 SIM cards each and forecasts that the number of unique mobile subscribers in the world will grow to 4 billion by 2017 (53 percent unique subscriber penetration).

The research also highlights that a share of the global population is susceptible to being unable to subscribe to mobile services due to various age demographic and socio-economic reasons. According to Wireless Intelligence senior analyst and report author Joss Gillet, "the mobile industry is targeting an 'addressable' global population of potential unique subscribers of around 5 billion, of which 1.8 billion are considered 'unconnected' due to a lack of network coverage."

As operators pursue their efforts to expand the reach of mobile networks to rural areas, notably in developing economies, "the mobile industry is on track to meet its 5 billion unique subscribers target over the next decade," he added.