Analyst firm Gartner has supported Nokia’s view of an upturn in the mobile device market next year, forecasting a 9 percent year-on-year increase in sales compared to 2009. Gartner’s prediction allies with Nokia’s belief – made at its Capital Markets Day event in Helsinki earlier this month – that the mobile device market will rise 10 percent next year compared to 2009. Gartner expects growth to be driven by the fact that replacement cycles globally will return to normal within two years, with the introduction of more aggressively priced smartphones and shorter contracts. Gartner also expects second-hand sales in emerging markets and SIM-only sales globally to stabilise in 2010 and to start decreasing from 2011 as consumers feel less macro-economic pressure. This will help increase total yearly sales to 1.322 billion units in 2010. However, Carolina Milanesi, research director at Gartner, warned that “despite a projected return to growth in 2010, the times of 20 percent growth are certainly over as mature markets are saturated and most growth will come from emerging markets. Pressure will remain for manufacturers to sustain and grow margins as ASP continues to decline. Software, services and content will be much bigger drivers than hardware, pushing traditional mobile phone vendors to reinvent themselves to remain at the top of their game.”

Meanwhile Gartner revised its estimate for full-year 2009 sales. Stronger than expected sales in Western Europe and an acceleration in the grey market in the third quarter of this year will drive worldwide mobile device sales to end users to 1.214 billion units, a 0.67 percent decline from 2008, according to Gartner. This flat growth forecast is an improvement on a September forecast of a full-year 3.7 percent decline. Strong performance has been recorded in Western Europe and Asia Pacific, although this has been balanced by weaker than expected sales in Latin America and the Middle East and Africa. Smartphone volumes will represent 14 percent of total mobile device sales in 2009, predicts Gartner, growing by 23.6 percent from 2008 and to 38 percent by 2013.