Sprint pledged to invest heavily in its network this year, but the work won’t immediately yield results in terms of improved churn, BTIG analyst Walter Piecyk predicted.

In a research note, Piecyk pointed out Sprint’s churn had increased year-over-year for the past five quarters and forecast Sprint will continue to see a rise in churn until the middle of 2019. Piecyk said Sprint’s shift to focus on the network is the “right decision” but noted churn could peak at 1.79 per cent before the benefits of its network investments begin to kick in.

Sprint’s post paid phone churn stood at 1.72 per cent at the close of calendar Q3 2017 (the operator’s fiscal Q2), marking an increase from 1.69 per cent in the same period of 2016.

Piecyk speculated a number of factors may be contributing to Sprint’s unusually high churn in comparison to competitors. These include previous low levels of network spending, the lack of its HPUE technology in popular new devices like the iPhone, the expiration of price promotions and increased competition from the likes of T-Mobile US and new entrant Comcast.

During two different investor conferences in December, Sprint CFO Tarek Robbiati acknowledged as much, stating “not every bit of churn is network related”. Robbiati listed billing, customer care, price and other “experiential issues” as elements factoring into churn, but reported the operator had “all hands on deck to attack network-related churn and other customer experience related issues that our customers face”.

Once it irons out the kinks, Sprint expects churn to drop dramatically, Robbiati explained.

“What is now very interesting with that analytical tool that we just discussed is that we know that customers who experience the right level of network experience generate churn that is well below the 1.3 per cent mark, right. We intend to go below that mark over time.”