4G mobile networks – based on LTE technology – are being deployed globally, giving users access to superfast mobile broadband speeds. But it’s the next generation of technology – 5G – that is really causing a buzz. Everybody seems to have an opinion on what exactly 5G could be, and what services it could support.

The hype around 5G is fascinating, given that there is no official definition or standard agreed for the technology yet. Standardisation is expected from 2016, and only then will we truly understand what benefits 5G will bring.

Until then, the debate around 5G will help fuel early development of the technology. With so much interest in the sector, a panel session at Huawei’s recent Global Mobile Broadband Forum in Shanghai aimed to dive deeper into the topic – hundreds of attendees at the event took part in an interactive Q&A discussion, giving their thoughts on a range of important issues. The results were then reviewed by a panel of speakers, moderated by Professor Rahim Tafazolli from the UK University of Surrey’s 5G Innovation Centre.

5G – when and where?
The hype around 5G often focuses on attempting to determine when the technology will be commercially available – and where.

“Whatever date it is I hope it’s not too early, otherwise we risk launching something prematurely”

To judge from the majority response (48%) of the audience at Huawei’s event, 2020 looks to be the most likely timeline for the first commercial launch of 5G networks. This target was met with approval by Tele2’s Group CTIO, Joachim Horn, who urged the industry not to hurry launch. “Whatever date it is I hope it’s not too early, otherwise we risk launching something prematurely,” he warned. Horn claimed that the industry is unlikely to see a ‘big bang’ move to 5G in 2020, but will instead see “a more gradual introduction” from 4G.

NTT Docomo’s Takehiro Nakamura, VP & Managing Director of the Japanese operator’s 5G Laboratory, was also eager to see a 2020 rollout – particularly as the operator is targeting its own launch of 5G services that year to support Japan’s role as host of the 2020 Olympic Games. “2020 is a very symbolic milestone for the Japanese people,” he noted.

However, Docomo already faces a challenge in attempting to become the first operator to launch 5G services: Huawei has announced plans to work with Russian operator MegaFon to support 5G trials at the 2018 World Cup. In fact, this 2018 timeframe had the support of 13% of audience respondents, with only a few more (16%) opting for 2019. Almost a quarter (23%) chose 2021.

As for where the first 5G commercial launch will take place, the result was unanimous – a huge 85% of the audience forecast Asia will welcome early deployment. “Korea and Japan have clear plans to deploy 5G. From 3G and 4G we can see the countries have strong internet requirements,” commented Wang Zhiqin, Deputy Chief Engineer at the China Academy of Telecommunication Research of MIIT. “China also has huge demand for the mobile Internet and Internet of Things. This is why Asia will be the first area to deploy 5G networks.”

The only real surprise, claimed Professor Tafazolli, was the low (7%) result for Europe. “I thought Europe would at least be second after Asia,” said the man driving the UK university’s 5G efforts.

Despite North America’s leadership today in 4G, only 8% of respondents expect the region to witness the first commercial 5G launch.

Why do we need 5G?
5gSo with Asia predicted to see the first commercial 5G deployment in 2020, what exactly is driving this move to the next-generation of mobile technology? After all, 4G is still in its relative infancy, with only around 5% of the world’s total mobile connections being based on LTE technology.

According to respondents at Huawei’s event in Shanghai, there are two significant driving forces behind 5G standardisation: the need for more capacity (36% of the vote) and the need for more connections (35%).

Only 13% of respondents felt that the need for shorter network latency was the biggest catalyst for the move to 5G, while 16% opted for ‘the need for network openness.’

Tele2’s Horn stressed that all four factors are playing a major role in the move to 5G. “After ten years a typical technology has been fully exploited in terms of development so you need a significant step up of capabilities in order to come to the next level of innovation. That’s the reason why the industry has these 10 year cycles.”

Technology challenges
With official standardisation still two years away, there is much speculation as to whether 5G will require a new air interface, or use existing technologies such as OFDM. The audience in Shanghai came down heavily on the side of a new air interface, with 56% of respondents agreeing that ‘5G is totally revolutionary’ and will support 4G interoperability.

“A transformation from other generations is the right thing – there needs to be a big gain and big value, otherwise you’re just evolving the current generation”

Huawei’s Tong Wen, head of the company’s 5G laboratories, said a leap to a new air interface is the right move. “A transformation from other generations is the right thing – there needs to be a big gain and big value, otherwise you’re just evolving the current generation.”

Just over a third (36%) took the opposite view, expecting 5G technology to use the same air interface as 4G, while being interoperable with each other. Whichever option wins out, it’s clear that interoperability between 4G and 5G networks will be key: just 8% of the audience expect future 5G technology to be ‘totally revolutionary with no 4G interoperability.’

“Interoperability is a fundamental requirement,” added Tong Wen.

In terms of technological breakthroughs enabled by 5G, the majority response (54%) highlighted was improved ‘network architecture’, with the other option – ‘radio technology’ – gaining 46% of the vote. Interestingly, Docomo’s Nakamura, MIIT’s Wang and Professor Tafazolli argued that both choices are equally important. And Tele2’s Horn wanted to put the focus elsewhere: “The most unique breakthrough 5G must bring is to move the focus from technology to the user experience. I think we are too technology focused. We need to use 5G to move out of the box. The technology should be the way to achieve it and not the purpose. The purpose should be a significantly better user experience. Then the user will have a reason to pay.”

The oxygen of the mobile industry
Access to suitable spectrum will be a fundamental factor in the future success of 5G. Spectrum is often described as the oxygen of the mobile industry, but what type of spectrum will drive 5G deployments?

The consensus from the audience in Shanghai suggested that the 1-5GHz bands will serve the most purpose for 5G (56% of the vote). Of note, Tele2’s Horn and Docomo’s Nakamura both lamented the lack of an option to pick ‘sub 1GHz’ spectrum as a choice in the vote.

Just under a quarter (24%) expect the 5-10GHz bands to dominate, while the 10-30GHz and 30-100GHz spectrum bands gained just 14% and 6% of the vote respectively. The lack of support for these higher frequency bands is perhaps surprising in light of recent efforts by industry bodies, such as US regulator the FCC, to promote the use of radio frequencies above 24GHz for future mobile services.

The US regulator is also a strong proponent of unlicensed spectrum – something the audience at Huawei’s event held in high regard. The overwhelming majority – 90% – of respondents expressed their belief that 5G should be deployed across both licensed and unlicensed spectrum, with ‘licensed spectrum only’ and ‘unlicensed spectrum’ gaining just 7% and 3% of the vote respectively.

“The question in 2020 will be whether we still differentiate between licensed and unlicensed spectrum,” stated Tele2’s Horn. “The most important task now is for us to make the most use of existing spectrum as much as we can before we reach out to new horizons such as the higher bands. Unlicensed is a big piece of spectrum actually. We musn’t choke out the WiFi community as it has a very important role – it needs to coexist and collaborate.”

Obstacles to success
As the industry moves ahead with standardisation of 5G and then commercial network launch – around an anticipated 2020 timeframe – there will naturally be challenges enroute. And the biggest obstacle standing in the way to success, according to the event audience, is insufficient investment by the mobile ecosystem. Almost half of respondents (48%) believe a lack of support will be the biggest roadblock, with just under a fifth (19%) expressing concern about ‘limited hardware capability’ and a third (33%) pointing the finger of blame at ‘limited material technology.’

“With the right cost structure and benefits then 5G will happen on time,” said Huawei’s Tong Wen. “But if there is no business case for the right cost and value, it will hinder deployment.”