Shipments of smartphones will maintain a gentle upward trajectory over the next five years, though the average selling price (ASP) is set to increase more rapidly, IDC predicted.

In the research company’s latest worldwide data forecast for 2017-2021, the company tipped shipments to increase from 1.5 billion in 2017 to 1.7 billion in 2021 – a compound annual growth rate of 3.3 per cent. This compares to an all-time low growth of 2.5 per cent in 2016.

IDC said growth would continue to be driven by new users in developing countries and two year upgrade cycles in mature markets.

During the forecast period, it predicted ASPs will rapidly increase, with a 7 per cent rise expected in 2017 alone thanks to the increased popularity of higher-end devices and phablets.

Apple vs Android
In terms of the type of devices sold, the company expects relative market shares between Android and iOS to remain broadly as they are today (see chart, below). In 2021 iOS devices are expected to account for 14.4 per cent of units shipped, down from 14.8 per cent at the end of 2017, and Android devices 85.5 per cent in 2021, up 0.3 per cent from 2017.

However, the analyst company pointed to Apple’s higher ASP meaning it will shift $180 billion worth of handsets in 2021 – giving it a 36 per cent share in terms of sales value.

 

Anthony Scarsella, research manager for IDC’s worldwide quarterly mobile phone tracker, said: “The high-end spectrum of the smartphone market shows no signs of slowing down.”

“Premium phablet offerings from a variety of vendors look to be the main driving force behind the growth of devices with screens 5.5-inches and larger. The average selling price of these devices is also expected to increase 9 per cent as we await the arrival of ultra-premium devices such as the iPhone 8, Note8, V30, Essential Phone, and the second-generation Pixel.”

“Phablets will make up 40 per cent of the smartphone market by the end of 2017. By 2021, phablets will control slightly over 51 per cent of the market proving bigger is most often better to most consumers.”