IDC has lowered its tablet forecast for 2013 and beyond, noting “growing competition from larger smartphones and the prospect of new categories such as wearable devices diverting customer spending”.

The research house said that it expects shipments to reach 227.4 million units in 2013, down from a previous forecast of 229.3 million – but still up 57.7 per cent year-on-year. It noted that despite its reduction in expectations for this year, the market will continue to grow at a rapid pace, to nearly 407 million units by 2017.

The company also adjusted its regional outlook, with maturing markets such as the US expected to cede share more rapidly to emerging markets such as APAC.

Market saturation, increased adoption of smartphones with 5-inch and greater screens, and eventual growth of the wearable category will impact tablet growth in all regions, but will hit mature regions first.

This will mean that the “mature market” (North America, Western Europe and Japan) will fall from 60.8 per cent of the market in 2012 to 49 per cent by 2017.

Tom Mainelli, research director, tablets, for the research company, said: “A lower than anticipated second quarter, hampered by a lack of major product announcements, means the second half of the year now becomes even more critical for a tablet market that has traditionally seen its highest shipment volume occur during the holiday season.”

IDC also said it expects average selling prices to fall as more mainstream vendors use low-cost components to better compete with whitebox tablet vendors, which “continue to enjoy widespread traction in the market despite typically offering lower-quality products and poorer customer experiences”.