Sometimes, separate events contrast strikingly. While generally the mobile industry seems to be roughly in-step, with similar issues leading to similar strategies, occasionally it becomes clear that there are real differences of opinion at play, leading to a divergence of activities that is worth noting. And that is clearly the case for the US mobile broadcast industry.

After many long months of speculation, Qualcomm confirmed the closure of its MediaFLO business, after having invested untold millions in the development of the technology platform and the deployment of infrastructure. Certainly Qualcomm should be applauded for its commitment: not only did it think that its technology would be a success, but it took on the task of building and operating the network to prove it, presumably in the hope it could then be sold-on as a going concern. Indeed it is following a similar strategy in India, although in this case its promotion of TD-LTE for wireless broadband services seems something of a safer proposition. At least Qualcomm’s shareholders can take heart in the fact that spectrum remains a valuable commodity, especially the 700MHz US allocation used for MediaFLO, which is set to be re-purposed for mobile broadband by AT&T.

Contrasting with this, a bullish statement from the Open Mobile Video Coalition at the CES2011 show earlier this month promised that “more than two dozen new receivers, tablets and accessories” will be available to support a city-by-city rollout of mobile broadcast services during 2011, with the group demonstrating products including a handheld mobile TV with 3D display, in-car terminals, and tablets. The Coalition, created by members of the US broadcast community, is promoting a technology affiliated with existing US digital terrestrial standards, rather than being a “mobile-first” solution such as DVB-H, DMB or FLO, which have all seen limited success in international markets.

On paper, the OMVC solution has several advantages over the alternative platforms. Firstly, the participants know the broadcast market, and have access to a portfolio of diverse and popular content, in a way that telco-led ecosystems do not. In addition, as an enhancement to existing digital terrestrial deployments, it can leverage infrastructure that is already in place, without the need for additional spectrum acquisitions. And as an add-on to an existing business activity, rather than a diversification, the OMVC ecosystem may also be inclined to carry losses for a longer period, in order to build the business, rather than seeing it as a drain on other, more profitable operations.

But the fundamental issue remains: despite numerous efforts in numerous markets, there is little evidence that consumers want mobile broadcast services in any significant numbers, meaning it is difficult to create a viable business using either advertising or subscription-based models. Given this uncertainty, there is also likely to be little demand for broadcast-enabled handsets, especially not if priced at a premium, and without mass-market support vendors are unlikely to be able to achieve the economies of scale necessary to drive prices downward.

While the OMVC counts Dell, LG and Samsung among its backers, Motorola, LG and Samsung produced devices for MediaFLO, and the various ecosystem participants still could not create a bundle of devices, content and services that customers would pay for. Without an obvious position in the value chain for mobile operators, there is also little incentive for the companies which largely control the handset supply chain to support OMVC devices – and through a combination of subsidies and marketing, with a customer base that is frequently upgrading devices, operators are well positioned to drive a technology into the mainstream.

And there remains another alternative: media streamed via CDMA, WCDMA, WiFi, WiMAX or LTE networks. With mobile media customers likely to be  “snacking” on  content rather than looking for a deep engagement, next-generation mobile technologies may well be the ideal tool for mobile media consumption, as well as delivering more established data services including mobile email, internet browsing and VoIP. Perhaps mobile broadcast will prove to be a technology without an audience.

Steve Costello

The editorial views expressed in this article are solely those of the author(s) and will not necessarily reflect the views of the GSMA, its Members or Associate Members