Five years ago, much of the media hyped mobile WiMAX to the skies, but now some journalists are writing it off completely. “WiMAX is toast as Clearwire plans LTE 4G test” read one recent headline.

As always, the reality isn’t quite as clear cut. Mobile WiMAX has gained a toehold and could even get a foothold before TD-LTE – the main alternative in the time-division spectrum used by WiMAX – gets into its stride, probably in 2012. China Mobile, one of the most aggressive proponents of TD-LTE, said last week that it is planning “multiple city field tests” and expects “most manufacturers” to launch their first chipsets in the first half of 2011. 

Eventually, TD-LTE will be a formidable competitor because it will likely benefit from the potentially large economies of scale generated by mainstream LTE if, and when, device semiconductor suppliers start producing chipsets that support both variants of this network technology, which has the backing of nearly all the world’s major mobile operators.

In the meantime, mobile WiMAX is gaining users, albeit at a much slower pace than mainstream mobile technologies, such as HSPA. Thanks to the government-mandated use of WiBro (an early version of mobile WiMAX) in South Korea, Samsung Electronics is one of the leading vendors of WiMAX networks and it is trying to reassure potential customers that the technology has a healthy future.

In a press release issued yesterday, Samsung forecast the total number of mobile WiMAX subscribers across the industry will exceed 20 million in 2010 and 45 million in 2011. “The mobile WiMAX coverage and number of subscribers will be dramatically increased if India joins the mobile WiMAX 4G world,” it added. India recently auctioned spectrum suitable for WiMAX, but some of the winning bidders look set to use TD-LTE instead.

Time to reposition
Moreover, with Clearwire of the US – formerly a prominent standard bearer for WiMAX – preparing trials of both variants of LTE, Samsung and the broader WiMAX community have a major marketing battle on their hands. In my view, they need to reposition the technology.

Even though a weak position in China and India means mobile WiMAX is very unlikely to achieve the same economies of scale as LTE, it could serve some niches in some markets. US operator Nextel’s success with IDEN, which was supported only by one vendor (Motorola), highlighted how minority wireless technologies can have a role, if they enable at least one key application very well. Nextel pioneered push-to-talk services using IDEN, which proved popular with American businesses that needed walkie-talkie-style solutions for field workers.

Similarly, there may be a case for optimising future iterations of mobile WiMAX for particular kinds of applications. For example, next-generation WiMAX networks could be configured to provide very fast uplinks that would appeal to people who want to make lots of video calls or photographers that need to upload large files on to the web.

Mobile WiMAX can avoid being toast, but only if its backers find a way to cut-through the excitable media coverage and really differentiate their technology from TD-LTE.

 

David Pringle

 

This article was first published on the GSMA’s Mobile World Live portal. David moderates discussion forums on the site and is a freelance media and investor relations consultant.

The editorial views expressed in this article are solely those of the author(s) and will not necessarily reflect the views of the GSMA, its Members or Associate Members