With IFA, Christmas, the Consumer Electronics Show and the GSMA Mobile World Congress all on the horizon, the global mobile market is surely going to be treated to an onslaught of tablet computers over the next six months. But what form will these tablets take and will any of them enjoy the extraordinary success achieved by the first iteration of the Apple iPad?

This week, there have been reports in Taiwanese newspapers that Apple is preparing to release a smaller version of the iPad with a seven inch screen, while Samsung is also reported to be close to launching a seven inch tablet. I have no idea if these reports are true, but, for me, a seven inch screen does seem like the optimum display size for a tablet computer.

Having played with a Dell Streak, which has a five inch display, in an O2 store here in London, I am struggling to find reasons to purchase one. The screen is certainly high-res and spacious enough to make using Google Maps and browsing websites far more enjoyable than on a smartphone. But, in my view, the Streak is too large to be used as a conventional phone, yet not big enough to justify purchasing in addition to my existing smartphone.

At the other end of the tablet spectrum, if, like me, you already own a small laptop or netbook, you may find it hard to justify buying an iPad or another tablet with a 9 or 10 inch screen. Moreover, the iPad can seem a bit unwieldy and geeky to get out in a bar or restaurant when you might want to show friends some photos, a video clip or a website.

In other words, a tablet with a seven inch screen seems like a good compromise and sufficiently differentiated from laptops, netbooks and smartphones. Having said all that, the iPad has shown there is clearly a sizeable market for 10 inch screen devices, at least among the Apple faithful, and probably among the many people with a heavy laptop that rarely leaves their house.

Can the iPad be toppled?
So, will the next wave of tablets produce a convincing challenge to Apple? RIM, the maker of BlackBerry smartphones, is rumoured to be working on a so-called Blackpad, but it will be tough for the Canadian company, which is not really associated with multimedia and entertainment, to challenge Apple’s supremacy in this market.

While Google seems to be keen to push its fledgling Chrome operating system into the netbook and tablet markets, most PC and smartphone manufacturers will probably prefer to develop tablets based on Google’s tried and tested Android software. Given that Chrome seems to rely heavily on a good connection to the cloud, I suspect hardware makers will be better off choosing Android for tablets that will be used on planes, trains and in other scenarios where connectivity can be lacking. But they may need to do some customisation to make Android feel at home on a large screen.

Then there is Microsoft, which has prioritised the development of tablets based on its widely-praised Windows 7 operating system. Microsoft has been pushing tablets unsuccessfully for years and it isn’t clear that even a very good PC operating system can make a successful leap into these kinds of devices, which intuitively feel closer to smartphones than laptops.

Nokia must also have a tablet under development, probably using the MeeGo operating system it has developed with Intel, but the world’s leading phone maker’s strategic priority has to be regaining the initiative in the smartphone market.

Ultimately, the success or failure of specific tablets will probably come down to four factors – the ease of use, the quality of the display (this is primarily an entertainment device), the battery life (it needs to be able to last the distance on long journeys) and the cost. While the iPad scores highly on the first three, its price tag of US$499 (and particularly EUR499 in Europe) looks eminently beatable.

 

David Pringle

 

This article was first published on the GSMA’s Mobile World Live portal. David moderates discussion forums on the site and is a freelance media and investor relations consultant.

The editorial views expressed in this article are solely those of the author(s) and will not necessarily reflect the views of the GSMA, its Members or Associate Members