Mobile phone records can be used to accurately predict the geographic spread of dengue epidemics and the data can also be applied to other infectious diseases, according to a study led by Telenor Research.

The study, which analysed anonymised call records from more than 30 million Telenor Pakistan subscribers during a dengue outbreak in 2013, demonstrates the power of mobile data to predict and track the spread of epidemic disease, Telenor said.

The study combined the data with dengue climate-suitability maps and estimates of seasonal dengue virus importation to generate fine-scale risk maps.

“The maps and tools we created have direct application to future dengue containment and epidemic preparedness, and can also be applied to other infectious diseases,” said Kenth Engø-Monsen, who leads Telenor Research’s data driven development initiative and is co-author of the study.

He said the very large mobile data set gave the team a bird’s eye view of the human movement that drives transmission and will help health authorities in at-risk areas put adequate countermeasures in place in anticipation of an outbreak.

“We look forward to working with public health authorities in Pakistan and elsewhere to deploy them in the prevention and control of future epidemics,” he said.

Dengue is the fastest-spreading tropical disease in the world, with half the global population living in at-risk regions including Asia, the Americas and Africa. There is currently no cure or vaccine against dengue infection.

The research was conducted in conjunction with the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Oxford University, the US Centre for Disease Control and the University of Peshawar.

The researcher said current dengue countermeasures generally focus on control of the carrier species, although these measures are often logistically difficult and vary in efficacy, and also do little to counter large-scale outbreaks once they are underway. In the absence of effective prevention and treatment, improving the transmission forecasting capability of health authorities is vital.

Caroline Buckee, assistant professor of epidemiology, Harvard University and the study’s senior author, said: “Accurate predictive models identifying changing vulnerability to dengue outbreaks are necessary for epidemic preparedness and containment of the virus. Because mobile phone data are continuously being collected, they could be used to help national control programmes plan in near real time.”