Stock analysis startup Trefis believes Nokia’s acquisition of mobile Web analytic service Motally could improve the Finnish vendor’s Ovi store and app offering, in turn boosting its stock price and halting the firm’s overall decline.

Trefis claims that the world’s largest handset vendor will continue to lose share in developed markets to rivals Apple and RIM; it suggests Nokia’s device share in Europe and North America has fallen from 30 percent in 2007 to around 27 percent last year, and will slip to 20 percent by 2016.

“We see a potential upside of 5 percent to the US$12 Trefis price estimate for Nokia’s stock if its developed market share stays at 27 percent through 2016, rather than declining to 20 percent as we currently forecast,” states Trefis. “This can only happen if Nokia starts offering its customers more and better apps.” 

Indeed, the note points out that Nokia’s Ovi store presently offers only 13,000 apps, compared to over 250,000 apps at Apple’s App Store and more than 70,000 apps at the Android store. But Trefis expects the acquisition of Motally – closed last week for an undisclosed sum – will draw mobile app developers to Nokia’s platform. “Nokia might be able to stop its decline by leveraging Motally’s tools to improve its Ovi app store,” advises Trefis, adding that, once its Ovi Store has been improved, it should be able to sell more devices as a result.

Motally’s tools help mobile software developers understand how users engage with their apps by tracking applications usage statistics.  “This data should make it easier for third-party developers to monetise their work,” advises Trefis. “If developers start making more money on Nokia’s mobile platform, more developers will come, which in turn should help Nokia offer a richer library of apps to its customers.”