IDC and developer tools company Appcelerator conducted a survey of 2,363 developers during 2010, to ascertain their opinions of the mobile device market now and in the future. In the first of a two part analysis feature, we look at developer opinions of platforms for existing and next-generation devices.

Apple’s iOS is currently the platform of choice for developers, coming in some way ahead of Android – and these two platforms then dwarf their main rivals. According to the survey, 91 percent of developers are “very interested” in developing for the iPhone iOS, with 82 percent saying the same for Android’s phone OS. Apple is ahead in “all categories related to market/revenue opportunity and current devices,” while Android is seen as having the greater future potential.

Research In Motion’s BlackBerry handset platform comes in ‘third’ place, with 34 percent developer support, followed by a good performance for Microsoft’s unreleased Windows Phone 7, at 28 percent.

Some 88 percent of respondents believe that Apple offers the best app store, compared with 10 percent who said the same for Android, while 76 percent state that Apple makes it easier to discover apps, compared with 20 percent who believe this for Android.

Fragmentation within the Android ecosystem is a significant problem: 74 percent of developers feel that iOS is the least fragmented platform, compared with 11 percent who say the same thing for Android. Interestingly, 57 percent of developers believe that Android has the most capabilities as an OS, compared with 36 percent for iOS, although 58 percent think that iOS is most secure, compared with 20 percent for Android.

The numbers indicate a very poor show for Symbian OS, the global mobile smartphone leader by device shipments, with only 13 percent of developers stating that they are “very interested” in this platform. This puts it behind BlackBerry and Windows Phone 7 for handsets, and even the unreleased WebOS and BlackBerry tablet platforms are generating more momentum. The picture is also not great for Nokia and Intel’s MeeGo smart device operating system, which is backed by just 7 percent of respondents – the same as for Amazon’s Kindle eBook reader.

During the last six months, developer support for Android and iOS (iPhone) has been relatively stable, while interest in iOS (iPad) has grown sharply. BlackBerry and Windows Phone 7 have lost a little momentum.

 

Uncertainty over tablet development
The survey found some differences in attitudes when it comes to tablet development, with WebOS and BlackBerry tablets scoring “considerably lower” than might have been expected. Interest in HP’s WebOS tablet and RIM’s BlackBerry tablet was at 16 percent for both, and while to some extent this can be attributed to the devices not having launched as yet, it was noted that developer support for the iPad was at 58 percent before devices reached the market.

Interest in the iPad and Android-powered tablets is significantly higher, at 84 percent and 62 percent, respectively. The report notes that the 62 percent for Android is encouraging due to the nascent nature of the market, when compared to the 58 percent pre-launch support for the iPad.

IDC and Appcelerator tied interest in tablets to success in the smartphone market, arguing that “less developer success in phones equates to subdued interest in tablets.” This will be a particular challenge for HP, which acquired Palm for the potential of WebOS beyond phones – as a handset platform, WebOS is a surprisingly high seventh in the chart, ahead of Symbian OS, despite the limited success seen by Palm’s devices using the platform. In addition to developer momentum and delivering a larger addressable market, it was noted that with Android and iOS the capabilities of the tablet platform have already been proven in the smartphone market. “The touch-based user interface, the Web browser, media capabilities, etc, have “cut their teeth” on the smallest, most competitive form factor on the planet. Now the primary variables are unique UI elements, form factor, battery life, and price. This, plus market traction, lowers the perceived risk profile for developers,” the report says.

 

Google leading the way for development beyond mobile
Moving on to the potential for development beyond smartphones and tablets, the survey noted that following a number of announcements and reports about support for apps on home entertainment platforms, interest in Google’s connected TV proposition is greater than that for Apple’s. In both cases the numbers of developers who are “very interested” is robust, at 44 percent and 40 percent, respectively.

Scott Ellison, VP of mobile & wireless at IDC, noted: “Apps are poised to help remake the television viewing experience just as they have remade the mobile experience. Television needs new and more effective ways to create immersive experiences, engage audiences with advertisers, integrate social networks, and drive viewership of original broadcasts.”

Android also gets the developer thumbs-up for being “best positioned to power a large number and variety of connected devices in the future,” a statement which was supported by 72 percent of developers, compared with 25 percent for iOS. The report notes that “Google’s strategic focus on OEM relationships and an open OS that can be embedded in any device will help significantly as it moves into adjacent mass market device categories,” and that “developers are clearly keying in to this trend.”