The potential for a third mobile ecosystem to challenge Android and iOS depends on the ability to make headway in emerging markets or provide a game-changing killer app, according to industry experts.

Speaking at an industry roundtable, Micah Adler (pictured), president and founder of app engagement player Fiksu, expressed doubt as to whether another OS could take the challenge to Android and iOS.

“If Windows and Nokia working together are having this hard a time, it’s really hard to imagine a Firefox, or an Ubuntu, or the Jolla guys doing something interesting,” he said.

“I hope for the business that we have a third platform as it introduces complexity that we can help our customers solve. But I’m a little pessimistic of that actually happening,” he added.

Mike Grant, chief marketing officer for technology company Myriad Group, said that the current duopoly will create a “very boring and staid world”.

“Consumers will get bored, there’s no differentiation at all,” he said.

Grant added that the dominance of Android and iOS could become more extreme as time goes on as the continued investment in Android and iOS apps and content will see the barrier to entry get higher.

Emerging markets offer a glimmer of hope, however. With the dynamic nature and potential for scale in these markets, Grant said that if Windows Phone, Jolla or Firefox can make ground, it “could really change the way that the industry operates”.

“We quite often get caught up in a Europe and US centric world which has gone through a lot of development and reached a certain position — and that position could potentially be changed by what goes on in emerging markets,” Grant said.

Fiksu’s Adler countered Grant by saying there is much less in these markets for developers, “because the monetisation potential is very low”.

The other way in which a new ecosystem could challenge Android and iOS is through a unique app or service that could drive uptake, argued Justin Lello, CEO of mobile media company Enrich Mobile.

“It may well be if Windows can come up with a fantastic app that we don’t know we want yet, we don’t know we need yet, but is a life changer, and the only way you’ll be able to get it is on a Windows phone — that will be the only way I can see that Windows will catch up in any way,” he said.

Antonio Garcia Perez, user acquisition manager at Rovio agreed: “It’s possible that another operating system comes in the future, but it has to come with something new.”