Juniper Research has reduced its forecast for mobile NFC growth in response to Apple’s iPhone 5 lacking the technology.
Financial transactions carried out by mobile NFC will total US$110 billion in 2017, compared to the previous estimate of US$180 billion, according to a report from the analyst firm.
The lack of NFC technology on the iPhone 5 – launched in September – will contribute to a two year lag in adoption of the technology in the US and Western Europe, given Apple’s success in educating consumers about new mobile services in the past.
Although the report said that the proportion of NFC-enabled smartphones will only be slightly lower than previous estimates, the lack of NFC on the iPhone 5 has reduced retailer and brand confidence in the technology.
Fewer compatible point-of-sale systems being rolled out and fewer NFC campaigns being pursued will reduce the visibility of NFC for consumers.
The lower-than-expected adoption of Google Wallet and delayed launch of the Isis NFC project in the US will also contribute to a lower level of growth in the technology.
As NFC is already widespread in South Korea and Japan, these markets will be less affected by the lack of NFC on Apple’s latest smartphone
Feedback on NFC trials have been positive, suggesting strong latent interest, while card providers MasterCard and Visa have recently certified several NFC products from the likes of Giesecke & Devrient and Gemalto.